The official start of the Atlantic cyclone season could be moved previously by up to 2 weeks, if officials from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decide that the recent historic meteorology warrants an extension to the season.Currently, the Atlantic hurricane season formally begins on June 1st and runs until the end of November.
However tropical storms are often designated and named in advance of the beginning of the season, something that is now being looked at to see whether it warrants an earlier season beginning date.
NOAA representatives stated that May 15th is the date being took a look at, as a prospective new starting date for the Atlantic hurricane season.
The earliest this would happen would be for the 2022 cyclone season, as were currently too near the 2021 season for the change to be made.
But NOAA and its National Hurricane Center (NHC) is going to be providing its regular tropical weather outlooks from May 15th this year, when formerly they have begun with June 1st.
A decision is most likely to be taken at later this spring, at conferences held by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and likewise World Meteorological Organization (WMO), according to media sources including The Verge and Weather.com.
NHC representative and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen informed weather.com, “Considerations for the group would include a determination of the quantitative threshold for adding or removing dates from the official Atlantic typhoon season. An evaluation would need to take place concerning the requirement for, and potential implications of, potentially moving the start of the cyclone season to May 15.”
There have been a number of early named hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the last few years.
Weather.com shared the graphic listed below:
” Named storms have actually formed prior to the official start of the typhoon season in about half of the past 10-15 years, including each of the past six years,” Feltgen told weather.com. “Many of the May systems are brief, hybrid (subtropical) systems that are now being recognized since of better tracking and policy modifications that now call subtropical storms.”
There are some factors to consider here for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests, however they mostly revolve around timing of potential defense purchasing, or phrasings in particular items.
There are reinsurance, insurance coverage and ils products that are developed to cover the risk of US hurricane landfalls right throughout a season. Here the alternatives would be to move the start-date earlier, or merely accept that this danger of an earlier storm forming has constantly been there anyway.
Cyclone threat models are usually adjusted to consider the experience of current seasons anyway, so it appears these need to already be accounting for any risk positioned by early forming storms.
The June 1st reinsurance renewals is a fascinating date though, as these renewals are typically considered mainly Florida and named storm focused, in terms of the peak danger for which protection is secured at June 1st.
Given the danger of any significant typhoon landfall happening earlier than June 1st is seen as exceptionally little in the models, its not likely any carriers would feel the requirement to buy security earlier even if of an extension to the main typhoon season dates.
In reality, some carriers already purchase and incept their mid-year reinsurance renewal purchases early anyway, largely as a way to avoid the blockage around this busy agreement renewal period, however perhaps with an aspect of awareness that storms can come earlier than the season dates would suggest.
Of course, at the other end of the season, it is likewise possible to have tropical storm or hurricane activity into December, although this is relatively rarer than pre-season storm formation.
The late season has been extremely peaceful in recent years, perhaps recommending that rather than any lengthening of the Atlantic cyclone season, whats really being seen is a slight shifting of the peak.
Seasonality is another interesting aspect to consider then, as in the ILS market, for instruments such as disaster bonds and other United States wind exposed ILS or collateralized reinsurance arrangements, seasonality can affect their contribution to modelled portfolio returns, with more risk/return assigned at peak season.
Cyclone season also affects secondary market cost marks for named storm exposed disaster bonds too, so any shift in the timing of the peak of the season could influence when seasonality is applied on modelling ILS fund returns.
In reality, much of the early storms are sub-tropical in nature and historical early storms, pre-radar and other more sophisticated technologies, might really have been incorrectly categorised anyhow.
NOAAs thinking about a change in the season start-date recommends that its meteorologists do think the season is now more likely to have an earlier start, although as we said its entirely possible this is the entire season shifting a little earlier in the year, rather than the period of accepted named storm or typhoon exposure increasing in length.
As ever well be tracking the 2021 typhoon season on our dedicated page. So stay tuned to Artemis as the season establishes and early forecasts for 2021 Atlantic cyclone season activity begin to come in from later this month.