US severe thunderstorm activity to escalate, warns Guy Carpenter

US severe thunderstorm activity to escalate, warns Guy Carpenter

US serious thunderstorm activity and serious convective weather condition looks set to escalate as we move into the second-half of March, reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter has warned.A multi-day duration of severe weather condition is anticipated for the United States south and southeast, which the reinsurance broker warns has the possible to bring destructive extreme thunderstorms, as well as other convective weather condition results such as big hail and twisters.
Beginning today, Tuesday March 16th, Guy Carpenter alerts that a low pressure system moving across the nation from the Desert Southwest will bring extreme thunderstorms to Oklahoma and Texas today.
The forecast then suggests that conditions will be more favorable for prevalent thunderstorms that can producing big hail and several tornadoes on Wednesday, as the weather occasion moves even more east across the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast United States.
Additionally, the window for serious climate condition continues into Thursday, throughout much of the Southeast US, Guy Carpenter warns.
Impacts are possible for significant city locations, with NOAAs Storm Prediction Center having actually raised a “significant severe” possibility for either hail or tornadoes for the following cities: Memphis, TN, Birmingham, AL, Montgomery, AL, Little Rock, AR, Jonesboro, AR, Pine Bluff, AR and Tuscaloosa, AL
. The reinsurance broker highlights that the “substantial severe” level of the SPCs warning “shows that there is higher than a 10% possibility within 25 miles of these cities to see either 2 ″+ hail or tornadoes of EF2 or greater intensity.”
Were now moving securely into the accepted beginning of the peak convective storm and extreme thunderstorm weather condition season in the United States.
Given the La Nina conditions and the state of ENSO in the northern hemisphere Spring of 2021, it had been expected that the US twister and extreme thunderstorm season could be a more severe one.
Forecasts for convective storm activity have actually recommended the potential for an above average year due to La Nina and ENSO and the second-half of March is when that activity typically ramps up.
Guy Carpenter said that, “Traditionally March marks the start of the extreme weather condition season and lasts into May. A second-rate start to March 2021 is transitioning into what seems several bouts of severe weather every 3-5 days through completion of March across the southern half of the eastern and main United States.”
Thats an ominous caution and with the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market holding substantial levels of exposure to convective weather, serious storms and in specific hail and twister occasions, it suggests ILS funds might be on watch as we move into the peak season for this hazard.
The catastrophe bond market holds exposure to this peril too, particularly the aggregate and multi-peril United States feline bond transactions.
Presently, we count almost $6.3 billion of US multi-peril cat bonds on-risk in the market, with well over half having some exposure to severe storms and convective weather condition losses.
Keep an eye on the trends in United States twisters, serious thunderstorms and convective weather as they develop throughout the season over on our U.S. twisters and serious thunderstorms page.

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