Atlantic forecast for average hurricane season in 2021: UK Met Office

Atlantic forecast for average hurricane season in 2021: UK Met Office

The UKs Met Office has actually forecast an average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin for 2021, with storm and hurricane levels expected to approximately match the 1991 to 2020 average.The projection is in fact the most affordable of all those we track on our 2021 Atlantic typhoon season page, as the others have all anticipate an above-average season ahead.
The UK Met Office has called for 14 named tropical storms, 7 typhoons and 3 significant Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to form during the 2021 Atlantic tropical season, which is bang on the NOAA set average of the last 20 years.
However, the UK Met Office does leave space for the 2021 typhoon season to be above, or perhaps below par saying there is a 70% chance of in between 9 and 19 called storms forming, a 70% possibility of their being in between 4 and 10 hurricanes, and a 70% possibility that significant cyclones number between 1 and 5.
Collected cyclone energy (ACE) is forecast to be 117, slightly below the 121 average.
But again the UK Met Office provides a 70% opportunity that the ACE index will be in the variety 44 to 190, leaving a lot of scope for a more active, or less active 2021 hurricane season.
Adding this newest projection into the mix of those we track on our dedicated cyclone season page, reduces our Artemis average forecast down to 17 called tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 significant typhoons (dropping from 18 named storms, 9 typhoons and 4 significant typhoons), with ACE now anticipated to be around 143 (below 150).
Our Artemis average is now getting very near the near-term average of the last decade of seasons, which sits at 17 called storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major cyclones.
Should the insurance, reinsurance, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and disaster bond market read excessive into the lower forecast from the UK Met Office, or the reduction in our average?
As ever, its hard to say, as forecast ability levels remain fairly low, especially if you examine the forecasts for recent seasons and the actual storm and cyclone numbers.
In addition, its important to keep in mind that, while forecasts offer some directional sense of the level of hurricane activity we may see in a provided season, its in no other way an indication of possible reinsurance or ILS market losses.
One factor the UK Met Offices forecast may be a little lower might be that the official declaration of the end of the La Nina came simply a couple of days back from NOAA.
Forecasters generally appear to believe neutral ENSO conditions, to perhaps minor La Nina conditions again later in the cyclone season, are most likely for 2021, which may have some bearing on activity levels being viewed as likely to be closer to the norm.
However guiding currents and wind-shear are once again going to be crucial factors, in whether tropical storms or cyclones approach landfall, get deteriorated by shear, or spin out to see.
Thats what truly matters to reinsurance and ILS as we move into the season and those are aspects that are much harder to make an attempt to predict.
Track the 2021 Atlantic hurricane and hurricane season on our devoted page and well upgrade you as new projections and details emerges.

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