The CSU group discussed on its most current projection update, “We have actually kept our above-average projection for the 2021 Atlantic basin typhoon season. While sea surface area temperatures balanced across parts of the tropical Atlantic are near to somewhat listed below typical, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature levels are much warmer than average.
We expect that neutral ENSO conditions are the most likely scenario for the peak of this years Atlantic hurricane season, and it appears not likely that El Niño conditions will develop over the next couple of months. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic typhoon activity through boosts in vertical wind shear.
On top of other forecasts for another extremely active cyclone season, this update from CSU will add to insurance coverage, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market data-points as the peak peril Atlantic cyclone season is now formally underway.
After the hyperactive 2020 season and some impactful, in regards to ils, insurance and reinsurance market losses, seasons of current years, all run the risk of capital suppliers will be on alert for the first sign of any substantial risk from 2021s typhoon activity.
The CSU group described on its latest projection upgrade, “We have actually preserved our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin typhoon season. Present neutral ENSO conditions are prepared for to continue for the next several months. While sea surface area temperature levels balanced throughout parts of the tropical Atlantic are near to a little listed below regular, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature levels are much warmer than average.
” We anticipate an above-normal possibility for major typhoons making landfall along the continental United States shoreline and in the Caribbean.”
Philip Klotzbach, who leads the projection group at CSU, discussed that the likely lack of El Nino conditions in thee Pacific this year and the warmer than regular subtropical Atlantic temperature levels, are the primary factors for continuing to forecast above-normal levels of hurricane activity.
With this newest forecast update, the CSU maintains its landfall likelihoods, which are all above-normal also: a 69% probability of a major Cat 3 or more powerful hurricane hitting the United States (average for last century is 52%); a 45% likelihood of a significant cyclone striking the US east coast consisting of Florida (average for last century is 31%); a 44% probability of a major typhoon hitting the Gulf Coast (typical for last century is 30%); and a 58% likelihood of a significant hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (average for last century is 42%).
The CSU projection group provide more detail on weather conditions that influence their forecast decisions.
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by neutral ENSO conditions, with anomalous eastern and central tropical Pacific warming over the previous a number of months putting an end to this previous winter seasons La Niñan occasion. We expect that neutral ENSO conditions are the most likely scenario for the peak of this years Atlantic hurricane season, and it appears not likely that El Niño conditions will develop over the next few months. El Niño typically decreases Atlantic cyclone activity through boosts in vertical wind shear.
The tropical Atlantic presently has near-normal sea surface area temperatures, while most of the subtropical North Atlantic is warmer than typical. A warmer subtropical North Atlantic in the late spring generally correlates with a weaker subtropical high that then results in anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Including this most current set of forecast data-points, from among the main forecast groups tracked by the reinsurance, catastrophe bond and wider ILS industry, our Artemis average still sits at 17 called storms, 8 typhoons and 4 significant cyclones, with ACE of 144.
As ever, the earlier the seasonal cyclone forecast, the less most likely it is to prove totally precise.
Projection updates delivered later in the year, normally around August, tend to be the ones that the reinsurance, ils and insurance market will take more actually, specifically when it concerns making portfolio or hedging decisions.
As an outcome, it will be interesting to see how much cyclone activity there is by that time of the year and what changes we see in those anticipated updates.
Directionally however, another forecast for a particularly active cyclone season must work as a pointer for reinsurance market participants, as well as the ILS and disaster bond investment community, that there is constantly an extremely genuine hazard of losses as the season advances (keeping in mind that it only takes one landfall to develop significant human and monetary effects).
Track the 2021 Atlantic tropical storm and cyclone season on our dedicated page and well upgrade you as new projections and info emerges.
Hurricane and typhoon research meteorologists at Colorado State University have today released an upgraded projection for activity during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to require an above-average season with 8 typhoons, 4 of them expected to become major storms.The team at Colorado State University (CSU) also continue to forecast an above-average possibility of significant typhoon landfalls occurring throughout the 2021 season, throughout the whole United States seaboard.
At its last projection update in April, the CSU tropical forecasting team stated that factors related to El Nino and La Nina in the Pacific and warmer than typical subtropical Atlantic waters would drive another above-average hurricane season in 2021. These aspects continue.
That early April projection called for 17 called hurricanes to form, 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes, with Category 3 or more powerful winds.
Now, at its June upgrade, the CSU group is requiring 18 named storms, 8 cyclones and 4 significant cyclones for 2021, so still an above-average season, today consisting of sub-tropical storm Ana which formed in the Atlantic in May.